Winning Hearts, Changing Minds: A Data-Driven Approach to Measure China's Influence in Latin America

This paper argues that while greater China’s development financing will increase the public approval of Beijing’s leadership in LAC, this relationship is moderated by (1) domestic government approval, and (2) media freedom. Greater approval for a citizen-won government will bolster the positive relationship between China’s development funding and perceptions of China’s leadership. At the same time, respondents in more open and freer media environments where the media can criticize the government could diminish this positive effect. An ancillary analysis examines how switching diplomatic ties from Taipei to Beijing influences development financing from China in Panama, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, and Nicaragua.

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